Welcome To Market Vitals

Have you ever counted the number of technical indicators offered by your charting provider? Neither have I but I’ve glanced, and its a dizzying array of choices. I have been analyzing and trading the markets for 25 plus years and have spent thousands of hours at my craft. While I have tried many indicators I have settled on just a few to guide me, whether I am day trading, or taking a long term approach to a trade set up. I developed the Vitals Sheet over the years with input from a few great technicians for my use and my trading partners.

Trading fads come and go and they are too many to name, but systematic analysis of the markets behavior, born out of price action, has been the only thing that has enabled me to be a profitable trader. Market Vitals is that work, developed over all these years, that is only now available to the public. The Vitals sheet will add a layer of discipline to any traders system. A trader that becomes familiar with the numbers and the tendencies resulting from price action around them will be better prepared to navigate the competitive world of trading.

I dare say that Tony Larussa was the one of best baseball managers ever because of the statistical preparation he brought to the ballpark. Market Vitals analysis allows for a constant IF/THEN dialogue between price discovery and the tendencies resulting from such price action. The numbers become a call to action where entrance and profit/loss levels are at hand. Forget the whispers, trade the numbers. Subscribe Now, and add a layer of discipline to your program.

Thank you, HFR

PS The Sheet coming to the Blockchain world soon!

Welcome to Market Vitals

Happy New Year to all and lets make 2017 the most profitable ever!

Have you ever counted the number of technical indicators offered by your charting provider? Neither have I but I’ve glanced, and its a dizzying array of choices. I have been analyzing and trading the markets for 25 plus years and have spent thousands of hours at my craft. While I have tried many indicators I have settled on just a few to guide me, whether I am day trading, or taking a long term approach to a trade set up. I developed the Vitals Sheet over the years with input from a few great technicians for my use and my trading partners.

Trading fads come and go and they are too many to name, but systematic analysis of the markets behavior, born out of price action, has been the only thing that has enabled me to be a profitable trader. Market Vitals is that work, developed over all these years, that is only now available to the public. The Vitals sheet will add a layer of discipline to any traders system. A trader that becomes familiar with the numbers and the tendencies resulting from price action around them will be better prepared to navigate the competitive world of trading.

I dare say that Tony Larussa was the one of best baseball managers ever because of the statistical preparation he brought to the ballpark. Market Vitals analysis allows for a constant IF/THEN dialogue between price discovery and the tendencies resulting from such price action. The numbers become a call to action where entrance and profit/loss levels are at hand. Forget the whispers, trade the numbers. Subscribe Now

Thank you, HFR

Actionable Trading Levels

I often say The Sheet has actionable trading levels.  What I mean by this is that the numbers become a call to action to trade the market.  Indecision is the death of any trading system.

I agree in a cautious approach to trading were things like win/loss ratio and risk to reward are thought about and implemented.  Once those are established in your system, definitive action is required.  Learning the tendencies of the market is the key to be confident and decisive.

As the HFT systems feed on each other and real trading reemerges as the norm,  having a system that gives solid trading levels will serve any trader in the long run.  I talk to traders all the time and they all use the numbers in their own way.  The constant is they have something they look at daily that better prepares them for the possible price action, and the tendencies that arise through price discovery.

Try a $1 trial today and add actionable trading levels to your system.

Problem Solved

The true test of any good product or service is, does  it cost effectively solve the customers problems?  This is the easiest way to think about any product or service.

The Market Vitals Sheet aims to solve multiple problems for the everyday trader.scale

Many traders say they get into markets great, but find it hard to establish exit points.  The Sheet has several intuitive areas for profit taking that can help solve this problem.

The pivot model’s targets are intuitive exit points as they take into account current market conditions from an expected range point of view.  Taking profits at the 2nd and 3rd targets are often excellent areas as you are capturing a great portion of the expected range.

The momentum/collar numbers are also great areas for profit taking depending on the trade set up.  A market that trades through a LM number and rallies often targets the  average, and sometimes the opposite momentum number(UM).  If you catch this rally the UM number becomes a magnet for the market and great exit point.

If you have a problem establishing positions the Sheet can help also.  Value range trading is my first go to for establishing a position on a daily basis.  From here I look to the pivot model and the momentum model to build my trade from.  One system can lead into another, especially when ‘areas’  lineup amongst multiple models.

Now the cost and is it worth it.  At $200 a month to gain actionable trading levels on 70 plus markets and spreads leaves you lots of time to personalise and fine tune your particular trade.  When someone mentions a trade on twitter the Sheet is my first resource for analysing a trade’s potential. Take a trial subscription and see if the money you make and save is worth the 200 clams.

Fractals and Futures

Many times on my twitter feed I will tweet an area of interest for a possible  trade setup.  I will always distinguish the type of chart. Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, along with 4hr and tic chart.  I am a big believer in repeating or ‘fractal’ patterns in my charting.  Charts look similar over time and  the patterns look the same no matter what slice of time or movement you are looking at.  Remember then  that the longer term chart is more powerful than the short term chart.

Recently someone tweeted a chart that was in 10ths of seconds and it looked remarkably uniform.  HFT was the driving force in this charts creation, but it goes to show the fractal nature of trading systems even at the HFT level.

Gain an understanding of the tendencies markets have in particular chart setups and you are on your way to a more profitable trading system.   The sheet’s momentum and collar levels do a great job at identifying actionable trading levels in this regard.  Sign up for a14 day trial  for $1 and add a layer of discipline to your trade.

The Power of the Collective ‘The Pits Are Done’

One of the most difficult transitions from pit trading to screen trading was the loss of accountability.  Let me explain.  A pit was a community not unlike any community you belong to.  There were people who you liked and people you might not say ‘stop’ to  as they stepped into the reversible bus lane.  But a dynamic you may not have thought of was you as a trader were accountable to the pit and the pit was accountable to you.

If you made a trade the traders around you new you made it.  The pit offered support in that way.  You may have bought the market and if the trade was against you a fellow trader would enquire, “you still have those?”.  The interaction you gained from open trading, intangible as it may be, was a check and balance that is lost on the screen.  Not just for that push to get out of losers, but a real interaction of actionable trading ideas.

Screen trading is totally anonymous.  And the speed that HFT has brought to the game can make indecision expensive!  For me rebuilding that community has been key to successful trading.  Having a trading partner and having a twitter feed have somewhat replaced the ‘community’ a pit created by its nature. When you combine a strong actionable game plan with a healthy interactive trading community you better the odds of de-pantsing the bots.   If you are having trouble with entry, exit or trade ideas grow a trading community and reap the benefit of the collective.

Follow the HFT Money

An old adage is ‘follow the money’ and if you look at not where the HFT guys make their money, but where they spend it, you can see the current market structure has allowed them to game the system.  Paying for co-location, for back doors into the matching engine, to lay their own fiber cable so they can beat you to the matching engine.  Doesn’t all this costly infrastructure say one thing to any reasonable person.  They have to know the order!!  What are you beating me to, if you don’t know what I am going to do.  Open your eyes regulators.  Some things I have heard they can do but can’t prove.  Read order flow to front run and or build the look of the book.  Put trojans (not condoms or horses) on non-exchange servers that can slow order flow so they can more easily front run.  A few years back a popular poker site had a problem with a hacker who never lost.  The proof was…wait on it…HE NEVER LOST.  It seems the same logic should hold true for trading.  If the market is set up structurally to allow risk free gaming of the system those profits are just a TAX on all users. Order integrity has always been the most important aspect of a trusted exchange.  The market demands it and the first exchange to deliver it will be the long term victor.  Lets all start demanding encryption, encryption, encryption.  Gift shop….CLOSED

It’s Order Integrity, Stupid (update)

With all the talk of HFT and the problems it poses, lets talk about market abuse and the most basic cause.  It’s order integrity, stupid and always has been.  How could you front run and order if you can’t see what it is first.  On the floor if a big order came off a desk a runner could tip off a pit trader who could step in front of an order.  A Pit broker could do the same.  The point is if there is no knowledge of the order till execution there is no room for unfair play.  This is the root of market manipulation and always has been.

Having  just seen Terry Duffy on CNBC say there is no way to front run an order because the CME market is a vertical silo is important.  The powers that be still will not address the TOTAL market structure.  Its like saying a order cannot be front run once the order is in the pit.  What about the in-transit route the order must take to get to the matching engine.  Who is overseeing the order integrity from my PC  to a server then to the ‘Secure’ matching engine?  Is there a breach of  order integrity at the server?

 

What if there is no one watching the server side of things.  Knowing where a market is loaded with stops is powerful trading information in any trading environment.  Seeing even a fraction of the order flows allows  for building the look of the entire book.  They get elections right with a 1% exit poll.

The commodity exchanges claim there is no foul play going on in their matching engine.  What about  the thousands of servers that feed the matching engine?  As orders flow through these servers are they open to sophisticated eyes that then can game the system?

In all the talk I have not heard anyone use the words ‘order encryption’ as a possible solution to leveling the playing field.  It would be like turning the lights off on these so called ”Traders’.  I think most real users would give up a fraction of time for a totally secure pathway to the matching engine.  When the lights go off, lets see the real trading begin!

Crazy Hog Action and Market Vitals

As a trader for many years I have found that the quantity of information available is staggering and that quantity doesn’t equal success in trading.  The quality of information is key, especially when it comes from technicals.  I have continued to look for new technical weapons to aid in my trading, but I always return to the Vitals sheet for my trading.

For the price of a grande latte and a scone you can arm yourself with these proven technical levels to aid in building a more disciplined approach to your trade.  Each trader will build a unique trading methodology, and Market Vitals can aid in building a more sound risk and reward trading regimine.  

hogs 4-9

Market Vitals June Lean Hog sheeet for 4-09-14

Which leads to today’s incredible action in the Lean Hog market.  The sheet’s levels are calls to action.  Having the Vitals levels for outrights and spreads available daily takes a lot of work out of my routine leaving me more time to decide what current price action means in regards to my position or possible trade set ups. The fact that the sheet comes in the afternoon for the next days trade arms me with levels for placing orders to capture the sometimes inefficient price discovery in overnight sessions.

The collar levels are great places to take profit and M hogs LMC today was 11640– not a bad out if you were short.  Once the reversal took hold, the sheet gave you great information on the potential for the recovery as the LM 12152 (lower momentum) became a magnet. Now a retest of 12425 (Weekly UM) is in the cards for tomorrow/Friday.